Iraq War Policies

Both John McCain and Barack Obama have significantly different views on the war in Iraq and I'm not sure I agree with either of them. John McCain pledges to keep a significant troop presence in Iraq until we win (and he's not the only person to have said this). I'd really like to hear Senator McCain define "win" as it pertains to the war in Iraq. In a conventional war (WWI, WWII) terms of surrender are agreed to before one side can declare victory. That's not going to happen in Iraq, ever. The surge (I'll get to that later) has helped stabilize Iraq but the Shia-dominated government cannot get around to sharing power (both political and economic) with the Sunni minority and anyone who understands (at all) the historical problems between the Shia and the Sunni shouldn't be surprised by this. Think about it; Republicans and Democrats can't agree on anything of substance but yet we expect these two radically different Islamic factions to sit down at the same table and be civil to one another. Some form of democracy has been around since the Magna Carta and we still have a hard time making it work. How in the world can we expect societies that have either been subject to tribal law and/or authoritarian regimes to suddenly become functional democracies. I think the best we can hope for in Iraq is what we have today and I am not certain what we'll gain by staying on. Also, the argument that goes, "if we leave before we win, the dead will have died in vain" is a non-starter. Someone needs to explain (in concrete terms) what the incremental gains will be if we stay longer and how many lives are expected to be lost to achieve those gains. To put this in business terms, if a company has invested millions in a new product line and the product line is not profitable, and is not expected to be profitable, the fact that millions have already been invested is not a viable reason for staying the course.

Senator Obama (and others) has said that he will "end the war". That also will not happen. If a President Obama puts into effect his plan to draw down all but a stabilization force within 16 months he will not have ended the war; he will only have ended our involvement in the war. So Senator Obama should be honest and say that this war cannot be won (as described above) and we are simply ending our involvement.

One of John McCain's criticisms of Senator Obama is that Obama will not admit that the troop surge has worked. Senator McCain draws a cause and effect relationship between the surge and a much more stabilized Iraq. I don't believe that the cause and effect are as well-defined as Senator McCain would like to believe. While the surge had to have had positive effects what is frequently left out is that at the same time the surge began Shia Militias, under the control of Muqtada al Sadr, declared a cease fire and the Sunni Awakening Groups were organized. The Sunni groups took on Al Qaeda in Iraq and destabilized that side of the insurgency and the Shia Militia's cease fire ended their deadly attacks on US troops. If the Awakening Groups were to close up shop tomorrow and the Shia Militias were to end their cease fire, we'd be in the situation we were in before the surge.